Corona as catalyst: Social competition

Five centuries of western domination are currently being replaced by a new world order. All the political, economic, military, cultural and ideological cards are already being reshuffled. If the Corona virus rages deep enough, it will ‘only’ catalyze this transition. In this essay, I try to briefly describe three of these major intersections in our time. Part 3: Social competition / Part 1. Ideological / Part 2. ‘Glocal’

The third question, begging for attention in this transition time and even more so in our corona time, is the tremendous difference in vulnerability between people in one society. I don’t mean here the increased vulnerability of elderly people, but the vulnerability of people lacking opportunities and securities.

In the past years many have pointed to the growing inequality in the world, particularly in ‘undercover oligarchies’ like China, Russia, India, Brazil and the US. Europe, Canada and Australia are in a better shape because of a more extensive welfare system, a stronger social dialogue, and a levelling tax system. But also in these parts of the world we see a growing vulnerability in society as a result of people not being able to escape their inadequate circumstances. And also in these countries, this can be the result of mechanisms that make people lack even the opportunity to flourish.

Consider the growing number of self-employed workers and flex workers who struggle due to temporary jobs, low incomes, little social security and no political voice. In 2011, Guy Standing wrote a book about this group with the title The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class. (Precariat is a combination of ‘precarious’ en ‘proletariat’.) Standing warns that chronic vulnerability makes people prone to populism and extremism.

In The Meritocracy Trap (2019), Daniel Markovits describes how a group of American citizens, who first benefitted from a meritocratic society to climb the social ladder, is now forming a closed caste at the top that is hardly accessible for outsiders. The result is a split society with on the one hand an elite that, from an early age on, prepares itself for top positions with top salaries and top responsibilities, and on the other hand a ‘precariat’ that lacks the means to keep up with the elite and is therefore condemned to insecure implementation work. For those who wish to know what this looks like, Markovits refers to the world’s largest taxi company Uber: at the top a small group of privileged and very rich designers and managers, at the bottom millions of underpaid and overworked drivers who will never be able to work themselves up to the level of the first group.

Also in Europe, Australia and Canada, although not as dramatic as in the US, social mobility is dropping rapidly and many are only one accident away from big financial trouble. And we don’t even know yet, how automation, robotics and digitalisation will disrupt the global labour market in the years to come. With new urgency we are confronted with an old question: how to avoid social disruption because of structural inequality?

Now look at the pandemic the world is facing, in the midst of this social competition. The good news is that we suddenly have an eye for people who were so easily overlooked in the past: all the people whose essential work keeps the heart of society running. At the same time, our world is facing a solidarity test with hardly any precedent in history.

I don’t need to describe the misery as a result of the many lockdowns in the world. For millions of owners, losing their business means the end of a life dream and sleepless nights over every layoff. For 60% of US citizens, no work means no health insurance. For millions of factory workers, no global trade means no living. For millions of labour migrants, no income abroad means no family support at home. And for millions of day labourers, no work for a day means no food for a day.

With fear and trembling the world awaits the social and economic damage when the dust of corona settles. Yet one thing is clear already: people who have nothing to lose are prone to extreme ‘solutions’: to communist revolutions, ethnic cleansing, fascist nationalism, scapegoating and sectarian violence. We saw it a century ago, and again these are real threats.

Anger can easily shape these threats, for nothing angers humans more than a lack of recognition. What we cannot afford in times of growing uncertainty is people also feeling humiliated by ending not only economically but also socially (in terms of appreciation and respect) at the bottom of society. If we want to avoid the anger this causes, we need to ask ourselves with new urgency: how to secure each person’s self-esteem and dignity?

In many countries this will provoke another question, namely what is more important to us: the income someone generates, or someone’s contribution to keeping society running? As long as we stress the first, society will continue to be divided into ‘workers’ and ‘volunteers’, with the last group feeling easily that they are somehow falling short. If we stress the second, we will be able to appreciate anyone for anything that contributes to the common good: not only the police officer, the accountant or the nurse, but also the family care giver, the church elder or the baby-sitting granny.

Such a generous appreciation might not be easy. It may be tempting to think that all this ‘volunteer work’ is still made possible by those with ‘a decent job’. In order to fully appreciate ‘unpaid work’, we may need to calculate its economic value (for example the costs that are saved on the health care system thanks to the dedication of family caregivers). The next question will be, how much value we want to attach to the different contributions in society, and to what extent we want to ensure all contributions are somehow financially ‘recognised and appreciated’.

Hopefully, corona is encouraging us to be less fascinated by CEO’s and financial traders and more impressed by the silent forces and forgotten callings that we are surrounded by. In times like these, when unemployment is skyrocketing and the already vulnerable are being hit the hardest, we cannot afford to lose sight of what everyone can still contribute to the common good – in whatever valuable way. For people do not only want to be loved, they also want to be needed. More than charity, we need a solidarity that takes the shape of a commitment to acknowledge and include each and everyone’s qualities.

These are no optional exercises. The solidarity test that we face will in many cases turn out to be a matter of anger prevention. And what applies to societies, is just as relevant at the international level: how to avoid that entire nations have nothing to lose and become prone to extreme ‘solutions’?

The answer to this last question requires no less than a world vision. Time to rise above the election rhetoric of four-year plans and reflect on what we want our nations and world to look like in 2030, 2040, 2050, and what investments this requires today. Climate change is already forcing us to think this way, but there are many other areas (mentioned above) in which we have no choice but to chase a joint vision. Jeffrey Sachs writes in Common Wealth (2008): “The defining challenge of the 21st century will be to face the reality that humanity shares a common fate on a crowded planet.” That is the way things are. And time is short. Corona catalyses what is moving already.

Part 1. Ideological / Part 2. ‘Glocal’ / BACK TO BLOGS

Corona as catalyst: Ideological competition

Five centuries of western domination are currently being replaced by a new world order. All the political, economic, military, cultural and ideological cards are already being reshuffled. If the Corona virus rages deep enough, it will ‘only’ catalyze this transition. In this essay, I try to briefly describe three of these major intersections in our time. Part 1: Ideological competition / Part 2. ‘Glocal’ / Part 3. Social

Since 2006, Freedom House reports a decline of freedom and democracy in the world – that is, of freedom and democracy as we westerners like to see it in the world. China plays a major legitimising role in this decline: with its collectivist and paternalistic regime, it defies the ideological bench-mark of the West. No matter how much privacy, journalistic independence and political participation is reduced in Chinese society, no western country is willing to pay the price for a hard confrontation. Too costly, too risky. Some banks are too big to fail, some countries are too big to franchise. A giant like China cannot be reshaped in the image of the West, and under Xi Jinping it has abandoned any hesitation. China stresses openly the non-universal nature of western democracy and the West reveals its impotence by remaining silent. At the same time, nobody fails to see the failure of the “global democratic revolution” (announced by Bush during the Iraq War of 2003), the non-stop arms supplies from the ‘free world’ to autocratic regimes, and the exposure of western hyper-liberalism during the financial crisis. And one group is only too keen to notice it: the authoritarian leaders of this world. They eagerly take all this as an approval of their own aspirations.

Loss of economic power leads to a loss of ideological power. Gradually, it is dawning on us what the impact of this will be for the new world order. The “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” has become an alternative ideology next to Western political thought. Every country is now forced to take position. Neutrality is not an option. Every country will be somewhere on the spectrum between western individualism and eastern collectivism, American liberalism and Chinese socialism.

Even the West will feel drawn towards a more eastern thought. According to the OECD, 60% of middle class consumption will take place in Asia in 2030. Products for the global markets (e.g. movies) will be more and more tailored towards the cultural taste of the East. This will leave the West not unaffected. And we have seen only the beginning of India’s rise. The more this country feels powerful enough to sail its own course (independent of the US), the more we will experience its cultural and ideological influence.

Now look at the pandemic the world is facing, in the midst of this ideological competition. What is drawing more attention as we fight the virus: our individual or collective interest? And who appears to be more effective in fighting the virus: the individualistic West or the collectivist East? Looking more specifically at the authoritarian regimes, it is not difficult to see how this crisis is only increasing their confidence. Corona has created the perfect reason for submitting 1.4 billion Chinese citizens only more to an omnipresent surveillance system.

Also the West has suspended a dramatic amount of freedoms to optimise its fight against corona. Citizens approve, trusting the measures will be temporary. But how temporary is temporary if a pandemic can happen again and all kinds of other dangers are just as menacing? Are we not also facing the threats of climate change, cyber-attacks, nuclear risks, global terrorism, et cetera? And do they not also require a collective response? Should we really restore all freedoms? And would it not be wise to adapt at least some of the digital technologies that are now being used so effectively in Asia? Corona is making a particular issue, already on our plate since the rise of China, only more urgent: the right balance between individual and collective interests, and more specifically between liberty and security. I expect western countries to move to the East in thinking. How far they will move, depends on the degree to which they can still explain to themselves the significance of individual liberty (and responsibility). For liberty means less control, and less control means taking risks for the sake of liberty. And the more insecure our lives become, the greater our faith in freedom will need to be to not sacrifice it to security.

Part 2. ‘Glocal’ / Part 3. Social / BACK TO BLOGS

ABC Radio Interview: faith versus fear

Interview by Meredith Lake (ABC Radio, Australia) with Tim Costello and myself about the role of faith in our own lives and in today’s world. Yes, public radio. Times are changing when it comes to talking faith in secular societies. Hope you enjoy (despite my English). It was a great pleasure and privilege doing this with Tim. Recorded on 19 March 2019. Click here for more information on the website of ABC Radio.

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A one-hour overview of major positive and negative trends in today’s world

If you have a spare hour, enjoy the video below in which I take you around the globe, summarizing the major positive and negative trends in today’s world. In 2018, I held this lecture for senior leaders of major corporations in Sydney and Melbourne (companies like Perpetual Limited, QBE, Deloitte, Karrikins Group, Oxford University Press, Worley Parsons and Pearson) in my role as Chief of Vision within World Vision Australia. This video was recorded by QBE in Sydney.

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