Corona as catalyst: ‘Glocal’ competition

Five centuries of Western dominance are now giving way to a new world order. Political, economic, military, cultural, and ideological structures are already being reshuffled. If the coronavirus spreads far enough, it will merely accelerate this transition. In this essay, I aim to briefly outline three of the major intersections shaping our time. Part 2: ‘Glocal’ competition / Part 1. Ideological / Part 3. Social

The world is in transition, first of all demanding ideological reflection within societies. But let us now consider this transition from an international perspective, because a second issue—already pressing—is becoming even more urgent: how important is national self-determination in a world that is increasingly interconnected and facing threats that demand international coordination?

Globalization is not new. For as long as we can remember, people have ventured ever farther from home in search of opportunity. History records a succession of winners and losers: those who benefit from other nations, and those who do not. Winners embrace the free movement of people, goods, and services; losers prefer to shut their borders. In past centuries, the West largely belonged to the winning side, asserting its right to free trade—even when selling, for example, opium to China. Today, we see the Chinese, Indians, Poles, and Mexicans seizing the opportunities of free movement, while the wealthiest parts of the West respond with slogans such as “America First” (Trump), “We Want Our Country Back” (UKIP), and “The Netherlands Is Ours” (Party for Freedom).

Behind this nostalgic nationalism and ironic protectionism lies a double motive: the West’s perceived loss of control threatens people not only economically but culturally. Chinese and Russian investors acquire Western companies and football clubs; Western mosques and Islamic schools are funded with Turkish and Arab money. Add the fear of Europe’s “Islamification,” and, in the Netherlands, the heated debate over Black Pete, and for many it is clear: it is not only Western economies but also Western culture that must be fiercely defended.

At the same time, something unprecedented is happening: never before has the entire world needed to collaborate to safeguard the planet. All nations face the same threats—climate change, nuclear risks, scarcity of water and raw materials, cyberattacks, refugee flows, human trafficking, and more. Each of these issues requires international coordination to be addressed effectively. No hacker, tsunami, or radioactive leak respects national borders, trade balances, or cultural heritage. In all these cases, nationalism alone is doomed to fail.

Now consider the pandemic unfolding amid this “glocal” competition. Here is another global challenge that binds nations together precisely as nationalism surges. Which way will the balance tip: toward international collaboration or national self-sufficiency? At present, we see both: countries confronting the same virus as if the rest of the world—or even the EU—did not exist, while scientists collaborate across continents to develop a vaccine.

This duality highlights an essential fact—one that shaped Europe’s history but is often forgotten in nationalist times: science and technology are never purely local affairs; they determine the fate of all humankind. Countries that isolate their scientific knowledge may protect a patent or two, but they forfeit the global potential of brainpower, expertise, and innovation.

And what of the economy? Will the pandemic push nations apart or bring them closer? History offers a lesson. During World War I, the sudden halt of global trade exposed nations’ vulnerabilities. Food shortages led to crises—including a national revolt in the Netherlands. After the war, many countries sought economic self-sufficiency (autarky). This strategy, however, created winners and losers. Some nations managed far better than others, and after a few decades, three proud nations—trapped by their own autarky policies and convinced of their entitlement—sparked World War II.

Today, we again witness the vulnerabilities of a globalized world: first physical, then economic. Disruptions in global trade are causing shortages, tempting politicians—especially in the West—to advocate economic self-sufficiency. In some cases, this makes sense: securing medical supplies, medicines, or reducing CO₂ emissions. But new self-sufficiency inevitably creates winners and losers. Famines and civil wars may follow when countries close their factories, and even less dramatic effects—for instance, reduced exports—can ripple outward.

This raises another question: when is it appropriate for a nation to defend its self-interest, and when does such defense backfire because cooperation and good relationships with other nations are essential?

The West is losing influence in the world. The United States and Great Britain, in particular, suffer from a “post-imperial stress disorder.” The world no longer aligns so neatly with Western interests, and some politicians interpret this as a license for unfettered national self-protection. The coronavirus may intensify this tendency, but the more inward-looking the West becomes, the more China—and soon India—will fill the leadership vacuum. Not only do these nations benefit from international partnerships, but many global challenges still demand cooperation. Countries can only achieve their goals if they can mobilize allies when decisions are made. China understands this and continues investing in relationships—even during the pandemic—while the West often weakens its old alliances.

The pandemic has made one reality undeniable: all nations share a single fate on one planet. As Westerners, we once held noble ideas about global responsibility. Let us hope we do not long forget why liberty, equality, and fraternity were cherished—not for one privileged nation, but for all of humankind.

Part 1. Ideological / Part 3. Social / BACK TO BLOGS

Three unavoidables if the West wants to sustain itself in a rapidly changing world

Speech I recently gave for the Koninklijke Industrieele Groote Club (www.igc.nl) in Amsterdam.

Brexit, Border Wall, Catalan separatism — western countries are absorbed by their own sovereignty issues. As a consequence, a much bigger issue is not addressed: how to sustain the West itself? Precisely when the West as a whole is losing influence, it is trapped in internal division. Instead of reflecting on a future-proof and non-imperialistic role for the West, (too many) western politicians are wasting precious time fighting each other and bullying the rest. The result is that they catalyze precisely the kind of marginalization they try to stop.

On 2 February 2019 I wrote that if the GDP projections of PwC are correct, not a single European country will sit at the table when the G8 gathers in 2050. Yet precisely now, nationalism is thriving and entire nations manage to grossly overestimate themselves.

As a Dutchman I live in the midst of this turmoil. At the same time, I crossed the globe in the last 10 years, speaking with social actors on all continents about sustainable solutions for social issues. Based on this experience, below 3 urgent recommendations to western politicians if they want the West to play a viable role in the years to come.

I. Stop being in denial

  1. Stop disguising the present
    • In this critical time of shaping our planetary future, facing major threats like cyber crime, nuclear risks, pandemics, global terrorism and climate change, the West cannot afford misleading politics: presenting ‘alternative facts‘ for electoral gain, hiding costs and difficulties when promoting solutions, and creating a false dichotomy between nationalism and globalism.
  2. Stop idealizing the past
    • As the West needs to respond to new issues (like its loss of power and the need for global solutions to global issues), it cannot afford a nostalgia that makes people only yearn for times that won’t come back. Above all, western countries need to overcome their post-imperial stress syndrome in which they only weaken their position by behaving as if they are still calling the shots. Brexit is currently the most dramatic example of this. It painfully shows that the United Kingdom is in no position to negotiate with 27 nations on an equal footing. Ironically, only a supranational entity like the EU can make this kind of equal dialogue possible. Leaving the EU means: falling back on the old law of the strongest between nations. Separatists in Scotland and Catalonia will bump into the same reality if they ever face negotiations with the UK or Spain.
  3. Stop blocking the future
    • Reform is gravely needed to make international institutions more suitable for global dialogue and collaboration. The longer the West waits with giving up its disproportionate power in the UN Security Council, World Bank, IMF, etc., the bigger the chance that non-western nations create their own entities (like China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). This weakens not only the western-controlled entities, but also the world’s ability to solve its joint issues.

II. Secure your Western values

  1. Secure your activism
    • 400 years ago, the West started embracing a mentality of not accepting human suffering, but always seeking “to relieve and benefit the condition of man” (Francis Bacon, 1620). This mentality is inherently optimistic, as it persistently believes that it is worth seeking solutions for whatever challenge we face. The current doom and gloom attitude of the West threatens this spirit. Time to breathe new life into it and make the whole world benefit.
  2. Secure your democracy
    • 200 years ago, the West started embracing the idea that every human being deserves equal respect and equal opportunity to participate in civil and political life without discrimination or repression. This idea is currently under pressure, with politicians disqualifying entire groups in society based on religion or ethnic background, with income inequality rising again, freedom in decline worldwide, and even EU countries leaning towards authoritarian types of governance. Time to re-affirm the meaning of universal human dignity.
  3. Secure your solidarity
    • 100 years ago, the West started embracing a welfare system in which the state protects and promotes the economic and social well-being of its citizens. After World War II, this system got expanded in Western Europe in response to Fascism, Nazism and Communism. It had become painfully clear that people who have nothing to lose become prone to extreme politics. In this time of new uncertainty and discontent, the West can draw from its past a powerful incentive to invest in solidarity again. Globalization, automation and robotics will disturb the labor market to such an extent, that a growing group of unemployed people cannot be retrained in time and stay unemployed. It will be up to us to decide, whether we want to further humiliate these citizens by treating them as a ‘cost item’ to society, or invite them to show their value in other ways.

III. Start valuing your assets

  1. Value your allies
    • If China can openly reject western democracy, Russia openly annex Crimea, and Turkey openly censor the media, western countries better start valuing their like-minded allies. This is the worst moment for the West to be internally divided, as it directly undermines the strength and credibility of western ideology. Building and preserving western partnerships, even at the cost of national sovereignty, may be the only way for the West to keep the critical mass that it needs to sustain what it holds dear.
  2. Value your culture
    • In 2030, Asia will represent 66% of the global middle-class population and 59% of middle-class consumption. Economic power means cultural power: the world will see more eastern-oriented products, adapted to the preferences of the biggest market: Asia. The West will have to decide where it draws the line in adapting to this culture shift. Not for superiority reasons, but to maintain a western sense of home and preserve the cultural assets with which the West can complement other nations.
  3. Value your planet
    • All of the above becomes irrelevant if the West cannot preserve the biggest asset it shares with all nations: our one world, with its global issues and vulnerable ecosystems. Before sustaining itself, the West needs a plan for the planet, for “there is no planet B”. The planet does not care about East or West, North or South. It only feels the weight of 7 billion people and eagerly awaits the moment in which all unite around one vision for the one earth we have.

In short, we urgently need western politicians who don’t give in to polarized debates but boldly manage to do both: preserving our assets with western nations as our contribution to the common good and our sense of home in the world, and preserving our planet with all nations to have a home at all.

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Europe has a simple choice: be the world’s 4th giant or a bunch of glorious dwarfs

If the GDP projections of PwC are correct, not a single European country will sit at the table when the G8 gathers in 2050. Germany can still join the G8 in 2030, but not the country that is currently most absorbed by defending its sovereignty: the United Kingdom.

Source: PwC (2017)

Of course, projections like these should be taken with a substantial grain of salt. But it sends a crystal clear message to Europe: now is the time to make up your mind! What do you really want? Be the 4th giant in the world – next to China, India and the US – or settle for glorious dwarfness by prioritizing national sovereignty over European unity?

Economically, the EU is already a giant. It is the world’s second-largest economy by GDP. But as long as the EU doesn’t grow up as a political entity (with one democratically chosen leader speaking on behalf of all EU members and citizens), we will continue to see a mind-boggling contradiction t between the EU’s strength as economic power and weakness as political leader, illustrated by the survey below:

Source: Pew Research Center (2017)

Below PwC’s ranking of the top-32 economies in 2016, 2030 en 2050. Europe is rapidly losing ground in the market place. Time to make up its mind. The current EU-approach is neither fish nor fowl, with for example a G20 containing both leaders of individual EU-countries and a representative of the EU. The more the rankings below become a reality, the more European countries will have to decide: splendid isolation as sovereign nations or significant participation as united EU.

Source: PwC (2017)

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